Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.510410 0.588920 0.674500 0.774584 0.888284 1.013299 1.161032
2025-08-03 0.379362 0.486761 0.615479 0.780489 0.985723 1.231853 1.548610
2025-08-10 0.302087 0.419479 0.570378 0.777225 1.051840 1.402165 1.880909
2025-08-17 0.247741 0.367521 0.530720 0.767116 1.098120 1.541995 2.178490
2025-08-24 0.208274 0.327537 0.498550 0.758463 1.139524 1.672870 2.469658
2025-08-31 0.173550 0.288092 0.460261 0.733704 1.151716 1.759832 2.702364
2025-09-07 0.160793 0.279680 0.465770 0.772653 1.258737 1.989331 3.157226
2025-09-14 0.137619 0.250932 0.435674 0.752010 1.271058 2.076761 3.404475
2025-09-21 0.118444 0.225926 0.408085 0.731296 1.279521 2.156580 3.643396
2025-09-28 0.103131 0.205366 0.385139 0.715034 1.292343 2.242389 3.896023
2025-10-05 0.095154 0.196974 0.382042 0.732023 1.361722 2.424219 4.317147
2025-10-12 0.090761 0.194702 0.389443 0.767958 1.466388 2.671811 4.864929
2025-10-19 0.084640 0.188466 0.389228 0.790705 1.551037 2.894168 5.390967
2025-10-26 0.077260 0.178694 0.381226 0.798063 1.608451 3.073793 5.857007
2025-11-02 0.069654 0.167312 0.368606 0.794836 1.645116 3.218117 6.269211
2025-11-09 0.062292 0.155367 0.353361 0.784523 1.666703 3.335628 6.639799
2025-11-16 0.055957 0.144793 0.339656 0.775689 1.689908 3.457030 7.025007
2025-11-23 0.049050 0.131830 0.319233 0.750409 1.677264 3.508390 7.279913
2025-11-30 0.047792 0.132359 0.328629 0.790178 1.801846 3.834853 8.087445
2025-12-07 0.042365 0.121663 0.311300 0.769100 1.796221 3.902615 8.390509
2025-12-14 0.037564 0.111829 0.294768 0.747950 1.788223 3.964346 8.684677
2025-12-21 0.033575 0.103526 0.280877 0.731345 1.788463 4.042444 9.016492
2025-12-28 0.031834 0.101158 0.281297 0.748692 1.866260 4.287913 9.710089